AUDUSD WON - 18102016 - 1.5 percent

AUDUSD won

Reasoning - AUDUSD was on a triangle. Reasoning, a higher high within the triangle should yield a continued upward trend as long as it was within the triangle.

This also has implications for the AUD pairs and USD pairs.
Took profit close to , but not at the trendline, and watch and wait for reversal trades and or retracements.

NZDJPY WON - approx 1.5 percent

Longed NZDJPY on a SAR signal.
1) Algo blue, SAR positive, day making higher low from previous.

2) RR about 1:2.5
3) Profit target set near the highs for the previous week.

Quite a positive trade.

Notes about this trade:
1) no emotionals involved
2) risk was very low, about sub 1 percent

Big Losses

Been running into a string of losses.

Note:

1) Do not overtrade
2) Do not revenge trade
3) Manage your potential loss exposure

Things You Must Know - As a Beginner Trader

Being a trader is difficult.

Before you start on this horrible, horrendous journey, here are some of my recommendations and takeaways. Please take note of the following.

- You will lose money. Many times.
That is why you should practice risk management of risking 2 percent or less! People have wiped out their accounts with reckless money management. Remember, no matter how ideal the trade seems to be, there is a possibility that it can all go wrong.

- Do not give yourself too much pressure to be in the trade.
You probably should start off with a demo account so you won't lose real money for the time being.
Focus on making good trades, rather than hitting everything that seems positive (this can be really difficult).

- Do not compare yourself with others
You probably shouldn't mix too much with people that boast about their winnings. I have heard of a few aces that supposedly multiplied their accounts by 10x or more in 2 months. But seriously, what would that be to you? Would supposed Mr Ace share his winnings with you? No. Would Mr Ace transform you into somebody like him? No. Would you even be able to trade like Mr Ace? No! Everybody is different. So don't try. You probably should trade based on your edge - market research, chart patterns and the like. You will be wrong. Everybody is. And has it occurred to you that Mr Ace could be lying? P.s Mr Ace probably does not practice good money management.

- Find a good mentor
This is really difficult but in this business, there really is so much hokey and shady characters out there, it really can be hard to tell. So ideally, a course or forex mentor should:

• have email or contact access regularly
• have regular classes 
• tell you the basics - money management, the importance of a trading journal, economic fundamentals and technical analysis
• be available to look at your trades (but this requires your trade journal)

- It is not going to be easy

Trading is incredibly easy but being a consistent trader is incredibly difficult. The road to success for consistent traders are paved with broken dreams, and dead bodies (literally, I am not kidding). I suggest laying off quitting your full time job to trade, unless you have sufficient capital, and or having a supportive spouse. 

- It gets incredibly lonely

Sometimes you do not get people to talk to. Nobody really understands how difficult it is, you get 20 trades wrong in a row. Not to mention that there are ARSEHOLES who would diss you with their supposedly winning methods when they know you have a losing streak. Seriously, that is a horrible idea.

So, do you still want to be a trader?

Shorted NZDJPY and AUDJPY 13102016 - LOSS AGAIN. 1 PERCENT

1) Shorted NZDJPY
Reasons:
- JPY strong today
- Continued US dollar strength and weakened commodity currencies.
- Algo trend red rebound.
- Seemed like a channel downwards.
- VIX high and rising.

Also shorted AUDJPY

1) NZDJPY GOT KICKED OUT.
- Markets did a rebound.
Please re-evaluate.

EURGBP SHORTED 12102016 - 1 percent risk

Shorted EURGBP and risking 1 percent.

1) Reasons: GBP is largely oversold and has a bounce back.
2) EUR is being oversold
3) Algo line red.
4) Markets reacting to Theresa May backing down on Hard Brexit
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/uk-government-backs-down-on-brexit-scrutiny-by-lawmakers-2016-10-12

RR: 1:3

EURNZD - LONG on 11/10/2016 - sub 1 percent loss

EURNZD - LONG with a loss.

Reason:
1) Algo line was blue and showing signs of strength
2) EUR would recover against the NZD (I was wrong)

Hindsight -
1) Should have get out once algo line turned red.
2) there were plenty of chances to take a quick exit without incident.

No real reflection on this yet.
1) Please think about how many eur trades gone wrong. That's another 2 percent I can put in the pocket.

EURCAD - 12102016 - LONG - CLOSED WITH sub 1 percent LOSS

This one was a spur of the moment decision. At that point in time, it seemed like all systems go.

Reasons for this to go
1) Oil was on the way down to 50 dollars at that time.
2) CAD showed signs of weakening.
3) EURUSD was on their way and seemed like about to rebound
4) Price was almost at algo line. Parabolic SAR was positive.
5) Price was bouncing off channel bottom.

Later on:
1) Oil had a bit more juice in it and managed another weak rebound.
2) Channel bottom drawn was breached.
3) Loss was sub 1 percent - about 0.8 percent as compared to the 1:3.5 RR I was planning.

Takeaway-
1) do not be too eager to jump into another position.
2) Simply too many EUR trades today.

EURUSD - SHORTED ON 10/10/2016 morning - CLOSED WITH PROFIT

SHORTED THE EURUSD  on 10/10/2016
Risk - 0.6 percent
Return 2 percent (approx than 3 times)

Took the H1 parabolic SAR down. Trail with the algo trendline.
EURUSD was forming a channel downwards. This seemed to be a realistic thing to take. No reason not to take. Took profit at red line below.

Reasons to take the trade:
1) RR was low, I only wanted to risk 0.6 percent. In hindsight, could have shorted at the top of the channel for a higher RR.
2) Dollar strength unconfirmed.
3) The Parabolic SAR was in a 'sell' mode.
4) Price action shows the forming of a downward channel.

Post Trade thoughts -
1) Why did you close the trade prematurely (before the channel bottom was hit?) Reason: It was near the D1 algo trendline. Reversals are likely to happen. My RR was also hit - I didn't feel like I wanted to stick around.

If you could do it again, what would you have done differently?
1) sell earlier at the first black bar near channel top and not wait for parabolic SAR to show.
2) Risk about 1 percent.
3)  Return should have been about 4 percent or more.

What else?
If EURUSD shows strength (bouncing off bottom of channel (in about a few hours time, I might pair it with a weak currency)

EURCAD - Closed with a Loss - 0.8 percent

EURCAD longed, but got stopped out due to NFP turbulence. Money Management Practiced, less than 1 percent loss.

1) Reasons for Long - CAD weaker due to oil dropping off the peak at 50 dollars plus.
2) Blue algo trendline.
3) Parabolic sar shows buy signal.
4) Eurousd in a channel, seemed to be reliable.

Post trade analysis;

1) put stop at algo trendline.
2) reconsider following the arrows at 4h close
3) plan for 2:1 rr.

Lost about 0.8 percent. No big deal really.
Note: Post trade checking of EURCAD shows I would have been kicked out too. So no big deal.

AUDJPY - Shorted on 071022016 morning - CLOSED WITH LOSS - 1 PERCENT

Shorted this on the morning.
Reasons for it.
- h1 seems like a double top.
- AUDJPY had previously turned at this resistance level before
- AUD seems to be weak(er)
- next major news - which would be China news would be next Thursday (China Trade Balance)
- AUD is a commodity currency, it will fade with dollar strength.
- losses are limited (money management) - 100 dollars
- yen should be headed for a turnaround

Reasons to cause a loss
- dovish interpretation to NFP numbers

if this is the case, what can be done to hedge this?
I got to think.

NOTE; AUDJPY GOT STOPPED OUT ON 13102016 THURSDAY MORNING

Yeah, it was pretty crummy.
AUDJPY turned around and turned into either a channel or a triple top.
Who would have thought it?
In addition, I moved my stop loss to riiight at the top. Hindsight. Please move stop losses a bit further from recent highs (e.g. 5-8 pips higher). Do not put stop at the high exactly.

Reflection: Put stops a bit past the highs. (and plan for that in the sizing)

EURUSD SHORTED ON 833PM 05102016 - CLOSED WITH PROFIT

833 pm 05102016

Shorted the EuroUSD
1) trendline on top
2) breached trendline at bottom
3) EUR tapering is a rumour
4) Dollar strength should be continuing

Stop loss - 1 bar
RR: 2

333 pm on 06102016
Currently position is ITM.
Base stop loss on trendline.

Feelings - neutral.

TRADE CLOSED DUE TO TARGET HIT.
EURUSD CONTINUES TO BREACH TRENDLINE AS SEEN BELOW.

TOOK A SMALL TRADE ON EURUSD TO LONG - with limited risk - about 12 pips, assuming it was the bottom of the channel but got stopped out.

Good things about this trade:
1) stuck to targets.
2) controlled emotions well.
3) ensured a proper risk reward.
4) longing EURUSD at supposed bottom of channel seemed like a good idea - on hindsight, should have put stop loss to breakeven to prevent further occurence.

LONG GBPNZD 05102016 EVENING - CLOSED WITH A LOSS

Longed GBPNZD
Reasons:
- GBP should be oversold by now.
- NZD in lieu of dollar strength should be weak.
- Algo trendline is blue.
- Higher high and higher low on previous day.
- Candlestick shape ended with a Morning Star Doji.

My big question - positioning of stop loss.
Placed it below previous day's low.
Initial risk reward - 1:2

TRADE CLOSED ON 07102016 WITH LOSS
POST TRADE THOUGHTS

- GBP continued to sell off
- Friday Flash eliminated the possibility of win
- stop loss was controlled, however, please consider when other positions risk 1 percent, I risked more than 1 percent on this trade. Should just risk 1 percent.
- it would have been easy to sell a continual fall in GBPNZD.

Things I did right
- money management and 2 percent rule.
- once morning star doji is breached, it means the pattern is largely invalid.

Post thoughts -
I'm starting to dislike GBP pairs.

AUDUSD Short 04102016 Order 871152

1. Shorted the AUDUSD
2. Reasons - Seems like a H&S at yellow points.
3. Pair is bouncing off the short term trendline.
4. US dollar strength.

Risk Reward: 1:2

• Stop loss is positioned at the top of the right shoulder and trendline. Breaching that and the trendline would hence invalidate the trade.

Take note of the yellow zone. 

- UPDATE
356pm 06102016

At the moment ITM.
Reasons - dollar strength.
Rapidly breaching resistance zone.
Allow it to run further.

02- NZD USD - CLOSED WITH LOSS

Got stopped out of a small trade - nzdusd
reasons: trendline didn't hold.
- the pattern seemed to be that of a channel instead.



I should probably let this pass.
Reason: It is 10pm. I have the flu. I don't have the energy to monitor this further.
Price may fall into the yellow zone.
Personally I think other pairs are better.

Post update;
The price fell into the yellow zone.

but I did not have enough energy or emotion mana to hold it.
I had a flu so I went to sleep.

POST TRADE ANALYSIS
- Please always watch out for breaching of channels.

01 - CADJPY - CLOSED PREMATURELY

Longed cadjpy Reasons:

1) Head and Shoulders Formation - see photo.
2) Jpy weakness
3) Oil strength.
4) trendline break and retracing
5) algo trendline indicates likely uptrend + h1 and h4 synchronous.

Strategy; transit from h1 timeframe to h4 timeframe. Shift stops according to algo in h4.
Exit upon cross or hit target.

Risk reward approx 1:3 currently.

05102016
Shifted stop loss to breakeven.
Pair seems to be going nowhere.
In the assumption that the market is a down, yen is likely to strengthen. Traders would likely take oil profits at 50 dollars, thus cadjpy rally might not hold.

I'll be just letting this one go.
_________________________________________________________________________________

Big mistake for CAD JPY - I sold it off at a small profit. CADJPY proceeded to make new highs.

Note to self:
Let the pair run.
Please consider carefully what mentor advises. Do not follow blindly.
Mentor's remarks - if following trades blindly - would not have the emotional capacity to follow thru unless properly researched.